The current chests in Path of Exile

Honestly I don't see how this affects standard much. There were perfect items even before eternals, it's only a matter of time before next patch we will see again perfect items.

I definitely remember getting my es chest mirrored before eternals a very long time ago. It was capped on es, only way to get more was to throw divines at it. It had t1 int, ~1100 total es (don't remember if this was int included), and two t1 resists.

I haven't played standard in a long time but the current chests in poe. trade is not even close to pre-eternal chests I've.

I never looked to weapons at that time, so I can't say if it happened. Though if anything it should be easier now anyway thanks to mastercrafting. Much easier. Also standard being standard, capped items are going to happen eventually. The chest I mentioned earlier was created back when everyone barely started out in the game and were gathering mats.

edit: well this was the thread for one of the competing chests - https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/339937, don't know why everyone took their mirror services down. I think this one had triple resists instead of extra es.

Though also keep in mind getting 2-3 perfect rolls comes first, then the mastercrafting meta mod, it's not like you blow 5 ex everytime you screw up, you still have to go through the alt -> regal process. I know people who have thousands of poe exalteds orb. This is nothing to them. So it's not like I'm saying I can do this or anything, but I do for sure.

Does this include the fact that you don't even throw a single exalt until after 3 perfect mods? And what order of obtaining the mods? Is this including mastercraft meta mods?

Not including the metacrafting mod is a pretty big deal.. also it looks like you didn't rescale the percentages after every successful t1 mod. If you roll tyrannical, you cannot roll another pure % phys dmg mod again, that entire category is removed from the roll pool and the other mods must be rescaled appropriately.

Lastly the calculations are taking the average values, which is not an accurate representation for the 1 persons who will succeed. In cases like this, only 1 person needs to jackpot the 6 t1 rolls and everyone else doesn't have to worry about it anymore, making the median value much more relevant. The only reason why averages are much higher than medians are those ridiculous outlier cases. For just 1 person, that sort of probability of him being that outlier case is too small. It's far more likely that the person who will craft this weapon will do it in 12M tries rather than 15M. Then take into account all of the other stuff that was missed in the math, the metacrafting alone should drastically cut the odds, and then even more from rescaling the mod percentages for every n+1 mod to roll on.

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